DISTURBx: From Research Prototype to National Decision Support for Evacuation
- Post by: Tobias Larsson
- 31st March 2026
- 1 Comment
The DISTURB project enters a new phase. During 2026, BTH and Länsstyrelsen Skåne & Blekinge are investigating the conditions for turning the AI-driven evacuation tool into a national platform.
The digital decision support system DISTURB — developed for planning and executing large-scale evacuation under heightened preparedness — is now moving towards national scaling. The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MCF) has funded an investigation phase during 2026, called DISTURBx, tasked with clarifying what is needed to go from research prototype to an operationally deployable platform.
Background
DISTURB was developed as a research project at Blekinge Institute of Technology (BTH) in collaboration with Länsstyrelsen Skåne & Blekinge, and builds on AI-driven discrete event simulation. The prototype enables decision-makers to simulate evacuation scenarios involving large populations, infrastructure and traffic flows — a capability that Swedish county administrative boards are responsible for under the Ordinance (2006:639) on evacuation and accommodation during heightened preparedness.
What happens in DISTURBx?
Phase 1 is a systematic investigation intended to give MSB a sufficient basis for deciding on continued financing. The work is organised in four work packages:
- Mapping and requirements analysis — Technical review of the prototype and needs assessment with county administrative boards, the Swedish Police Authority and the Swedish Transport Administration.
- Information security — Classification of data and systems, threat analysis and assessment of requirements for the operational environment.
- Governance model and cost analysis — Investigation of four alternative models for operation and maintenance, including cost estimates and recommendations.
- Usability testing — Tests with at least three county administrative boards and two central government agencies to assess the tool’s potential for wider deployment.
Looking ahead
If the investigation leads to a positive decision, pilot exercises in Civil Defence Area South are planned for 2027, followed by national rollout in 2028. The complete decision basis is due in December 2026.
The project team at BTH is Professor Tobias Larsson and Professor Marco Bertoni, and Peter Ryman (Länsstyrelsen Blekinge) coordinates the effort, and the project that is funded by MCF involves a broad reference group with stakeholders from Blekinge, Kronoberg and Kalmar counties.
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