DISTURB project completed – digital decision support for large-scale evacuation

• Post by: Tobias Larsson
• 25th February 2026
• 1 Comment

The DISTURB project (Digital Decision Support for Large-Scale Evacuation) was a one year project carried out in collaboration with the County Administrative Boards of Blekinge and Skåne, funded by the Swedish Civil Defence and Resilience Agency (MCF) with the intention to clarify if digital support systems could improve the evacuation process and coordination that today is largely manual.

The project has delivered two research reports that together demonstrate how discrete event simulation with intelligent agents can be used to analyse and support decision-making in large-scale evacuation scenarios – during both peacetime and periods of heightened preparedness.

The first report (Building blocks for large-scale evacuation simulations) maps the current state of knowledge and identifies key building blocks for evacuation simulation. The second report (Simulation Environment for Large-scale Evacuation : Modelling Approach and Experimentation) presents the development of a comprehensive simulation environment, demonstrated through a case study of Karlshamn Municipality. The environment models the entire evacuation chain – from early warning and preparation to transport by car, bus, train and ferry, as well as reception at evacuation sites and reception centres. Background traffic, checkpoints, civil defence shelters and hospital logistics are included, along with visualisation in BTH’s Virtual Production Studio Lab.

The results show that it is fully feasible to integrate all components of an evacuation process into a single simulation model, and that simulation can complement traditional exercises with evidence-based insights for better resource allocation and strategy.

We look forward to continuing the dialogue on how simulation and modelling can strengthen Sweden’s crisis preparedness in Phase 2 of this endevour.